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Live · every pick tracked publicly

Tennis Predictions That Find Mispriced Markets

A machine-learning engine built on 1.6 million matches prices every ATP and WTA match, every day — and only speaks when the market disagrees with it by 6% or more. Signals land on Telegram before play starts. Every result is published below, win or lose.

Start 7-Day Free Trial See the ledger ↓
1.6M+
Matches Analysed
12.4M+
Data Points
+29.9u
Verified Profit · 1u flat
381
Public Signals
📍 WIMBLEDON 29 JUN – 12 JUL — Wimbledon previews live · read the cards 🎾 BACK Basavareddy @ 4.00 — Edge +14.7% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.00u 🎾 BACK Kokkinakis @ 4.10 — Edge +10.3% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.10u 🎾 BACK Teichmann @ 4.10 — Edge +14.4% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.10u 🎾 BACK Borges @ 3.05 — Edge +10.9% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +2.05u 🎾 BACK Duckworth @ 2.54 — Edge +14.1% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +1.54u 🎾 BACK Trungelliti @ 2.22 — Edge +11.3% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +1.22u 📍 WIMBLEDON 29 JUN – 12 JUL — Wimbledon previews live · read the cards 🎾 BACK Basavareddy @ 4.00 — Edge +14.7% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.00u 🎾 BACK Kokkinakis @ 4.10 — Edge +10.3% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.10u 🎾 BACK Teichmann @ 4.10 — Edge +14.4% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +3.10u 🎾 BACK Borges @ 3.05 — Edge +10.9% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +2.05u 🎾 BACK Duckworth @ 2.54 — Edge +14.1% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +1.54u 🎾 BACK Trungelliti @ 2.22 — Edge +11.3% — Roland Garros — ✓ WON +1.22u
The receipts
Publicly tracked since April 2026

Every pick. Published.
Even the losers.

No cherry-picking, no deleted posts. Every signal we've ever sent is settled against real Betfair prices and published here — the wins, the losses, and the drawdowns in between.

Record 165W-216L
Profit · 1u flat +29.9u
Kelly bank +14.1%
Avg odds 2.65
Cumulative profit — every public signal, 1u flat stakes settling…

Drawn live from the same public ledger that powers fault.bet/results. Losing runs included — that's what a real edge looks like.

Browse the full ledger →
How it works

What happens before
a signal reaches you

Six checkpoints between raw data and your Telegram. Most matches never make it through — and that's the point.

Ingest everything

1.6 million historical matches, live Betfair markets, every ATP & WTA draw, and per-court weather. Refreshed daily before play.

Profile both players

27 features per player — surface-matched Elo, form momentum, fatigue and travel, choke index, serve hold in wind. Data no human tracks consistently.

Price the match

Twin 4-model ensembles — one trained for ATP, one for WTA — vote independently on every match and agree a fair price.

Calibrate the confidence

Raw model confidence is re-graded weekly against real settled outcomes, so when the machine says 60%, it means 60%.

Check the market

Model price vs confirmed Betfair price. Edge under 6%? Nothing fires. Some days that means no signals at all — passing is a position.

Fire the signal

Pick, live price, edge, confidence and stake — on your Telegram at 9am UK, before the market moves. Then it goes on the public ledger, win or lose.

Anatomy of a signal · settled example
🎾 VALUE SIGNAL — PRE-MATCH
BACK: Naomi Osaka
Madrid Open · Clay · Women's Singles
Betfair: 1.91
Model: 1.59
Edge: +19.8%
Confidence: 81/100 · Stake: 1.0% bank · ✓ WON
⚡ Included with every plan

Your trading terminal

Every ATP and WTA match with live Betfair prices, model probabilities, pressure profiles and inplay reads — at app.fault.bet, on any device.

app.fault.bet
Live Matches
24
Signals Today
7
Best Edge
+18.4%
Total P&L
+13.2%
✔ Value Signal
Back Alcaraz
BF Price
1.44
Edge
+14.2%
Stake
1.5%
⚡ Inplay Signal
Lay Zverev
Price
1.32
Choke
0.71
Score
5-3*
🎯
Pressure Profiles
Choke index, closing rate, tiebreak win %, deciding-set record for every player on tour.
🌦️
Weather-Adjusted Analysis
Hold % in wind, ace rate in cold, indoor/outdoor splits. Data nobody else has.
📈
Surface-Matched Elo
WElo ratings per surface with 8-week momentum tracking. Pre-match Elo, no leakage.
💰
Betfair Price Comparison
Model fair price vs live Betfair odds, highlighted when a real market price is confirmed.
⚡ Get Everything — £20/mo
Pricing

One plan. Everything in it.

No tiers, no upsells, no "pro" gymnastics. Signals, dashboard and inplay alerts for less than a takeaway.

🎾 EVERYTHING
£20/month
Signals + Dashboard + Inplay — one plan, all of it
  • Daily pre-match value signals at 9am UK
  • Live dashboard — app.fault.bet
  • Inplay Telegram alerts
  • Match probabilities & pressure profiles
  • Betfair confirmed prices · full ATP & WTA
  • Proportional staking guidance on every signal
  • Every signal publicly tracked — wins and losses
Our average signal price is 2.64 — one winning 1u pick a month more than covers the subscription.
Start 7-Day Free Trial
Full access immediately. One-click cancel — no questions asked.

🔒 Betfair Auto-Placement — Coming Soon

Automated bet placement direct to your Betfair account.

For builders

Tennis Trading API

The same engine, as JSON. Pre-match probabilities, signals and pressure profiles over REST — built for Betfair automation and Polymarket tennis trading.

  • Pre-match win probability — every ATP/WTA match
  • Live inplay edge vs Betfair market price
  • Player choke index and closing rate data
  • Polymarket-compatible probability endpoint
  • Signal webhooks for instant delivery
  • Simple REST + JSON — docs included · from £59/mo
GET /v1/signals/today
X-API-Key: fb_your_key

{
  "status": "ok",
  "data": [{
    "tournament": "Wimbledon",
    "player1": "Alcaraz",
    "player2": "Zverev",
    "p1_win_probability": 0.5823,
    "p1_fair_odds": 1.72,
    "confidence": 0.847,
    "recommended_stake_pct": 2.5
  }]
}
View API Documentation
From the model

Tennis Trading Insights

Strategy guides, player analysis and Betfair trading insights from the fault.bet engine.

Rivalry · Full Breakdown

Alcaraz vs Sinner: The Complete Head-to-Head

14 min read · Updated 1 Jun 2026

All 16 meetings, surface by surface, every Slam and final. Alcaraz leads 9–7 — but Sinner has won 3 of the last 4. The deciding-set pattern nobody prices right.

 Wimbledon · ATP

Wimbledon 2026 ATP Preview — Sinner Defends, Alcaraz, Djokovic and the Grass Field

10 min read · Slam Preview

Sinner defends the title he won over Alcaraz, Djokovic chases more history, and the grass specialists lurk. The model's draw read and where the value sits.

 Wimbledon · WTA

Wimbledon 2026 WTA Preview — Swiatek Defends, Sabalenka, Gauff, Rybakina

10 min read · Slam Preview

Swiatek defends on her least-loved surface, Sabalenka's power suits the lawns, and the flat-hitting grass movers are dangerous. The most open Slam of the year.
Read all articles →

Tennis Trading FAQs

Everything you need to know about Betfair tennis trading with fault.bet.

Yes — fault.bet is fully live. Pre-match signals are delivered daily to Telegram at 9am, and inplay signals fire during matches across ATP and WTA events. Our verified track record is publicly tracked at fault.bet/results.
One plan, everything included: £20/month — daily pre-match value signals delivered to Telegram at 9am UK with staking advice, plus the live dashboard at app.fault.bet, inplay Telegram alerts, pressure profiles, player profiles and match analysis.
The Choke Index measures how often a player fails to serve out a set when leading 5-3 or 5-4 — compared to the tour average. Players with a Choke Index above 0.50 are historically far more likely to drop that lead than Betfair's market implies. This data powers several of our inplay strategies including Serve-Out Lay and Choke Match Lay.
Tipsters give opinions. fault.bet gives model outputs — built on 1.6 million matches, 27 predictive features, and player-specific pressure profiles no human analyst tracks consistently. Every signal includes the exact edge over market price, confidence score, and proportional staking recommendation. Every result is publicly tracked at fault.bet/results — including the losses.
Because we hunt value, not favourites. Our average signal price is 2.64 — at those odds you only need to win about 38% of the time to break even, and our tracked record is comfortably above that. A 43% win rate at value prices is how the ledger stays in profit; a 70% win rate at 1.30 usually isn't.
A lay bet on Betfair means betting that a player will NOT win. When our model identifies a player significantly overpriced by the market — typically due to high Choke Index, poor closing rate, or fatigue — laying them captures that edge. Our inplay signals include both back and lay recommendations depending on the score state and player pressure profile.
fault.bet runs 7 inplay strategies scanning every live match every 60 seconds: Serve-Out Lay (high choke players at 5-3/5-4), Break-Back Momentum (back just-broken player at inflated price), Double Break Back (longshot recovery plays), Fatigue Fade (back fresher player in deciding set), Deciding Set Specialist (back strong closers), Tiebreak Specialist, and Choke Match Lay. View the live track record at fault.bet/inplay-results.

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