FaultBet is an AI tennis trading signals service. We analyse serve hold percentages, break patterns and pressure statistics across 1.6 million ATP and WTA matches to identify when exchanges are overpricing players. Our lay signals target players with high choke indexes — those who historically fail to close out sets and matches despite being market favourites. Available on Betfair, Smarkets and Betdaq.
Using 8.9 million data points from ATP and WTA matches we calculate a unique pressure profile for every professional tennis player. This includes their choke index — how often they fail to serve out a set when ahead — their closing rate versus the statistical baseline, and their serve hold percentage under break point pressure. These are the metrics that exchange prices simply do not account for.
Our LightGBM model compares a player's live exchange price against their model probability — derived from 61 predictive features including surface-adjusted WElo ratings, H2H performance in close matches, and real-time momentum indicators. When a player trading at 1.22 has a historical closing rate suggesting they should be priced at 1.45, a lay signal fires.
Signals are delivered via Telegram by 9am for pre-match opportunities and in real-time for inplay lay signals. Trader and Pro tier subscribers receive push alerts via the web app. Pro subscribers can connect their exchange account for fully automated bet placement with configurable stake sizing and daily loss limits.
All prices inc. VAT. Monthly rolling. Cancel anytime.
Early access pricing locked for waitlist members.